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14th March 2012

2.40 RSA Chase - Bob's Worth - 5 pts win - 9/2.

Historically a race I've done well in as i often oppose a classier type who has been winning flat track small field races with a more battle hardened type who preferably has a bit of Cheltenham form.

This year Grands Crus is the classy type & I will be opposing it. Given it has looked top class & has won here & ran the mighty Big Bucks close, but I just see this going to a dour stayer yet again.

The 2 that are on my short list both won here at the Festival last year. First Lieutenant who won the Neptune & Bobs Worth who won the longer Albert Bartlett. The latter race is much more my idea of the type of race that fits with an RSA winner as its a strong test for a novice. Last years Albert Bartlett looked a good race & this one stayed on in the manner of a strong stayer. 3 runs in chases have seen a defeat of Cue Card before running 3rd behind Grands Crus. However 3 miles round Cheltenham is far more a test than at Kempton & Bobs Worth is better going this way round. 2nd to the injured Invictus was probably its best run as apparently it had only had 1 gallop prior to the race & exceeded expectations. This race looks tailor made & it rates a strong bet.

I like first Lietenant as a horse but its not been seen since December which i see as a negative & despite liking good ground which should improve it, I see it being outstayed. At a longer price I like Lambro from the same yard who should enjoy both the trip & the ground but lacks that bit of class the principles have.

3.20 - Champion Chase - Finnians Rainbow - 1.5pts ew - 11/2. Gauvain - 1pt ew (w/o fav) - 18/1

Sizing Europe is a long time favourite of mine having tipped it to win both the Arkle -6/1 & this race last year -10/1. Those sort of prices won't be seen now & anything better than evens is decent.

Will it win? Probably ! Are the odds value? - No , but look about right. Looks in the same sort of form,if not better & also the race looks much weaker than last year but the price reflects this. I've learnt a long time ago that backing odds on in big races won't help you be a millionaire but i find strong fav's win strong races more often than not. I'm not backing an odds on shot in a championship race, so where is the value?

Big Zeb is a price but its a year older & looks in worse form so can't have it whatever, as I just feel its day has been.Finnians Rainbow is interesting having run so well in last years Arkle. However, like a lot of Hendersons, it looks better in small field chases on flat courses with a bit of give. Probable booked for a place & fairly solid at that & appeals far more than Big Zeb as its career is still on an upwards curve.

Finnians Rainbow looks more settled than when it ran 2nd in the Arkle last year & despite not looking the strongest in the run-in, maybe getting a lead from the favourite will help it. Very consistent & last years Arkle often has a bearing on the following years CC. In a weak race in depth I give it a very strong EW chance.

A chancier bet is Gauvain, but some of its better form is worth a 2nd look. Beat Somersby all ends up & has a lot of top class form here at Cheltenham including thrashing Woolcombe Folly & beating Chapoturgeon (In form) & Forpaddytheplasterer. Blinkers returned for 1st time since its novice days & looks interesting in the without fav at 18/1 to come in top 4

April 14th - 2012

1.45 - Super Duty - 1pt ew - 9/1. WON

Simonsig looks like a special horse & should win, but as we saw with Fingal bay not everything goes to plan. Its one defeat to that horse was on soft ground so the recent rain makes the 1/2 look poor value.

I do like Colour Squadron but i don't like trying to guess if they will stay & this one needs to prove that yet. I feel Baby Shine may run well but Super Duty is unbeaten on completed starts & remains progressive. Looks like it needs this 2 miles 4 & also soft ground seems to suit. last time out it beat the strong favourite Keys with the 3rd 20 lths back. Keys had only been beaten by Cinders & Ashes prior to that & was expected to win. That form is rock solid & whilst I have no doubt that Simonsig is the better horse i just see this as a much better value bet.

2.50 - Oscar Whiskey - 2pts win - 5/2. WON

Not as good value as when i tipped him last year but i feel the conditions are perfect for him. Rock on Ruby disappointed when racing here after a hard race at Cheltenham last year & there is a danger it may happen again. Zarkander may well be one to follow next year but this year things haven't panned out. Thousand Stars may well have to make the running which in my opinion plays right into Oscar Whiskeys hands. A very strong traveller who is best with some give on a flat cruising course. ie. this race. I think he hit the front too soon last year but if 100 stars does make the pace then Barry can bide his time & use the acceleration that I don't think anyone else in the field possesses

3.25 - Saint Are - 1.5pt ew 9/1 & The Hollinwell - 0.5pt ew - 33/1. WON (Saint Are)

Saint Are would have been a very big bet if the rain hadn't come yesterday but I still feel it will run a big race. Seems suited to Aintree with a win at this meeting last year before splitting decent chasers Champion Court & Astracad here in November. That race would give it a rating of about 150 so off 137 it could be very well handicapped. Only races in handicap company have been at Cheltenham but its far better around here. Will love the better ground, despite the showers & looks well treated especially as this extra half mile may improve it.

The Hollinwell looks a very big price. Pieces of form, such as a close 2nd in a listed race at Doncaster off 135 in November ( now off 130) is just one of them. One of the guaranteed stayers who will really appreciate any great pace in this race.very hit & miss, like a lot of its trainers horses but the benefit for that is that the prices are big when it is a going day. Being so well handicapped suggests it may have a going day

4.15 1pt ew Sunnyhill Boy - See Below(Antepost) Junior 0.75 pt ew & BecauseIcouldn't see - 0.75 pt ew ( all 20/1)

15 yrs ago you could discard 25 of the field with ease but those days are over. I would say 25 of these have a chance of victory being such a competitive race nowadays.As ever though, a huge amount of luck is needed.

I want a stayer ( obvious) but a horse that has the speed to be prominent ( as Cloudy Lane & Always Waining proved earlier). A hurdles run always tells me the stable are targetting this race & despite the weights creeping up I'm still not sure a big weight is ideal here over 36f.

I have already sent out my first bet Sunnyhill Boy who has actually drifted now Synchronised is a runner ( below are my notes i sent out for those who recently joined)

Junior looks a standout based on its 24 lth romp in the Kim Muir of 2011. Only had 2 runs this term , with the obligatory hurdles run followed by a great prep when a close 2nd to a future winner with the pair well clear. I'll guarantee it will be fitter today & that all important handicap mark has been preserved. it stays, it enjoys big fields & has been aimed at this all year. Looks about the right weight of 11 stone 2 & is now 5 lb's well in

BecauseIcouldntsee finished a close 2nd to Sunnyhill Boy but the trainer quickly stated that this would improve for even further. this is bourne out by it coming 2nd in the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2009. ran in this race last year but only got as far as the 2nd so we never found out how it suits this race. Another that has used hurdles races to keep its mark down & gets in today off only 10 stone 3. A year older I'm hoping its less keen this year & if it gets into a rhythm it has the pace & ore importantly the stamnina to figure

1pt ew Sunnyhill Boy - 16/1 Bet365 ( 5 runners & now Non runner No bet) or you can get 26/1 on betfair last time I Looked. 2nd!

Quite happy to do this now as there are still doubts about Synchronised running in the race, so if it doesn't then McCoy will take the ride & it would be close to favourite come the day.

Ticks every box that I look for in a Grand National winner.

Amazingly 8 of the 9 last winners have run over hurdles sometime in that season. That tells me that they are wanting to get the horse fit without ruining its handicap mark.Sunnyhill Boy ran over 3 miles in a Haydock fixed brush hurdles race.

I always want a horse to have proven it stays. By winning this seasons Kim Muir over 3 miles 2 then it has stamina in spades. That is always run at a big pace & he only really got into it approaching the final fence. Having won that it was raised 10 lb's meaning that its well in by that amount having already being allocated 10 stone 5.

That light weight is also a huge advantage. Historically low weights have done well in this race but recent races have seen horses carrying over 11 stone do better. If the handicap was framed now it would be off 11 stone 1 so it has the class.

Best on good ground but not ground dependant, so quite happy to bet a week in advance.

One little fact is that 2 of the last 5 winners have been sired by Old Vic - Compy or Die, Don't Push It , with other notable National types such as Black Apalachi, Vic Venturi & the like running well here. Sunnyhill Boy is bred to do well.

Its fit, in form, stays, has the class. All it need its some luck

5.05 - Redera - 1pt ew - 12/1.

Nervous of the Henderson trio & also Sire De grugy & Ubi Ace but in such a race I don't want to scatter selections around chasing the winner

looking at the 3 runnings of this the 3 winners have all run in a graded race at the festival & also have shown good or winning form in a large field. Redera ran in the County Hurdle & has won a couple of big field handicaps in Ireland. has run a good race earlier in the season at Leopardstown & seems the type to want a really good pace. Almost certain to get it with a few pace options in this. Can go on most grounds & nicely weighted.

Example 1 - 7th May 2008

2.45 - Chester

Ability to stay & the skill to run around this tight track two & a half times are required here
 
I have a shortlist of plenty but will ignore the 2 favourites as in such a competitive race they offer no value whatsoever.
 
My 3 that appeal are Bulwark , Missoula & Tilt
 
Bulwark is a massive price - 66/1. Only last year this was running 3rd in 2 group 2 staying races yet gets in here off a mark of 95. Its good run last year was with eyeshields & blinkers - both left off for its last 5 runs. Visor on for the first time for canny yard. Ran a close 6th in this race 2 yrs back despite very poor draw & trouble in running. Could tail off but also could hose in at massive odds!
 
The other 2 - Missoula is a course winner & looks the type to improve for the step up in distance. however its not very experienced so my other bet will be Tilt. - laid out for this race & not far behind hot favourite - Double Banded despite not enjoying the going. Apparently very well it looks primed for a big run
 
Bets - Bulwark 0.5 pt ew - 66/1 (won) & Missoula 0.5 ew 18/1
 
 
3.15 - King Orchisios 1pt win 7/2 & Bertoliver 0.5 ew 16/1 ( won)
 
Over a period of 10 years there have been no winners in 5f races with more than 13 runners ( excluding soft or heavy going) from stalls 9-15 stall 7 has none & stall 8 sneaks in with a win. So 131 have raced from stalls 7-15 & one has won. Watch stall 15 win now!!
 
This year both horses drawn 1&2 are slow starters who would prefer 6f so this gives an opportunity for those drawn 3-6
 
Invincible Force was tempting but I have no evidence that it can run well fresh so will reluctantly leave it out.
 
Next is King Orchisios at 7/2 . Normally i would suggest 7/2 in a competitive 15 runner early season handicap is not value but I am looking at only approx 5 or 6 who have a shout. King Orchisios has won a similar race when last tried on a sharp left handed track, is well handicapped, in form & likes to race prominently - big chance
 
The one i can see giving it the lead it wants is Bertoliver - drawn 7 but is a very fast starter so should be able to grab the rail. 5f stretches its stamina so this tightest of courses should suit but even so I can see King Orchisios leading late on